It is white to move! Is this a win or draw for white? What are the key ideas and continuation plans?
It's hardly intuitive for Black to defend by giving up his dark-squared bishop when he has 6 pawns locked on white squares, but he can just defend by getting his K to f6 and the B to e8. Then b5 is reinforced and the K is prepared to follow the White K to the Q-side via e7-d8-c7. I think the key idea that made me think of this was that the dark squared B would be an obstacle to getting the K to c7 in some variation I was looking at.
Here is what I end up with after exchanging at e7- I can't figure out how to win this:
1.Kg3 Be7 2.Be7 Ke7 3.Kf2 Kd7 4.Ke1 Be8 5.Kd2 Bf7 6.Kc3 Bg6 7.Kb3 Kc7 8.Ka4 Be8 9.Ka5 Bg6 10.a4 Bf7 11.b5 cb5 12.ab5 ab5 13.Kb5 Be8 14.Ka5 Bg6 15.Bb5)
Right now, Craig, I don't have an answer to this problem. I need to preserve the dark squared bishop to break the hold on b6 in my line (control of c7), but I can't preserve the bishop and keep the black bishop off of h4 after 1.Kg3 Be7. Also, I can't find a way to accomplish my plan without 1.Kg3. I would have to say this is draw.
I don't see what White can do about 1. Kg3 Be7. If White exchanges, then Black's K just has to shadow White's K; protecting the Bg6 if Whites K stays on the k-side and getting to c7 if White's K marches to the Q-side.
Here is the idea with a plausible line. I think in this line that white must keep the dark-squared bishop on the h4/d8 diagonal to keep the black bishop from attacking the white pawns from behind, but is done on move 2 in the line below. I guess the real question right now is can black effectively put the other bishop on c8 to prevent the sacrifice at a6.
1.Kg3 Ke8 2.Bh4 Bg7 3.Kf2 Bf7 4.Ke1 Kd7 5.Kd2 Kc7 6.Kc3 Bg6 7.Kb3 Bf7 8.Ka4 Bg6 9.Ka5 Bf7 10.a4 Bg6 11.Ba6 ba6 12.Ka6